Swansea City vs Everton: Safety matches!

The notion of “safety” in the Premier League seems a little irrelevant when Swansea City comfortably hold eighth position in the table.

Even so, the mathematicians among you (which, I suspect, is not that many) will want the added feeling of security that 40 points will bring and a win in Saturday's game against Everton will push Swansea into the desired “safe” zone.

The current team is looking more and more comfortable each week. I can't see much being changed this Saturday - the old cliché reads 'if it ain't broke, don't fix it'. (Other clichés I enjoy include: 'stubborn as a mule', 'tip of the iceberg' and 'start from scratch' - all have probably featured heavily in this blog over the years.)

Nathan Dyer will be serving the last of his three-match ban for his red card at Wigan, leaving Wayne Routledge to once again fill in on the right wing. I guess “fill in” undermines him slightly as he's done so much more than just fill a hole. While arguably less skilful and certainly less speedy than Dyer, Routledge's delivery into the box has been superb and it's something that is definitely leading to goals.

Gylfi Sigurdsson is having an inspired few weeks and I wouldn't bet against him getting another goal or two in the game against Everton. He's certainly the player to permanently fill the Dobbie-role (now on loan to Blackpool until the end of the season) – if Swansea can raise the funds to sign him.

Ashley Williams is still not a certainty to start after missing out at Fulham due to sickness last weekend. We hope he returns, but I'm sure Monk would relish another starting appearance (and probably deserves it).

Before we get too caught up in getting the fourth win in a row, lest we forget Everton are still a “big” team. Despite now being below the Swans in the table (tenth), they're consistently a top-ten side and boast a number of impressive players and a good manager in Moyes.

Everton took all three points from Swansea in Goodison Park at Christmas time with a 1-0 win, but were unable to overtake the Swans in the table on Wednesday, when they lost 1-0 to Arsenal. In fact the Arsenal game marked the third in a row without a win, so they'll see Swansea as a route back to winning ways. I'm sure they'll be wary though – I don't think any team now feels Swansea is an easy three points, especially at the Liberty Stadium.

But who am I to analyse Everton? In a ForzaSwansea first, I've allowed another blogger to grace my blog. Here's some great analysis from Nic, writer at top Everton blog The Executioner's Bong:

Brendan Rodgers has rightly been lauded for the way Swansea have lightened up the top flight. The best thing about your style is that it shows you don’t have to play the direct, dour percentage football adopted by other sides that have come up.

Against a side who keeps the ball like you guys do there is perhaps a plan A and Plan B. ‘Plan A’ is to let you have the ball, conserve energy by only pressing when you approach 20 yards from our goal. Plan B is to stop you playing from the back. Given the small squad and the vital cup replay on Tuesday I’d doubt very much if Moyes would adopt an energy sapping tactic like Plan B and will instead adopt Plan A and look to stand off, narrow the passing angles to Swansea’s defenders and push them to play longer.

Moyes will certainly shuffle his pack for this one given the Arsenal game last night and the cup game next Tuesday. I’d expect Stracquilarsi, Anichebe and perhaps Gueye to get run outs given they all have good energy as we will probably spend a lot of time not in possession. Pienaar is cup tied for Tuesday so will probably start also. I’d imagine Cahill, Jelavic and possibly Drenthe will all be rested.

Our goal scoring record on the road is awful – less than one per game – so you probably only need the one goal to win it!

With that in mind, let's move to some bets! If you're planning to place a wager on the match, a few to cover are listed below:

Swansea are favourites at 5/4 so would be a good inclusion in any accumulator you have going this weekend. 'Sigurdsson to score first' is at 13/2 and probably worth covering as he is the man on fire at the moment.

My score prediction is 2-1 to Swansea, which is priced at 15/2. Nic says just one goal could win it for Swansea, and 1-0 to the home side is at 11/2 (all odds from PaddyPower)!

Thanks again to Nic and be sure to check out The Executioner's Bong for more analysis!

Swansea City in Europe!

Swansea? In Europe? Yes, I recall being laughed out of various forums/blogs at the beginning of the season for suggesting that Swansea City may end up in Europe. I was talking optimistically of course, and actually meant “it may happen in a few years”.

But it could well be a reality next season. While it's highly doubtful (yet not impossible) that Swansea will qualify for the Europa League next season by table position, they have another route.

As we speak (well, as I type and you read a few hours later) Swansea sit second in the Premier League Fair Play Table, just below Spurs. As you might be aware, Swansea were leading the race for first up until a few weeks ago.

But there is ample opportunity to claim top spot again, and you can help with this.

The Fair Play competition is not just about red and yellow cards gained, it covers many aspects of promoting the "beautiful game", including positive play, respect towards opponents, respect towards the referee and – where you come in – behaviour of the public.

The full details of how the Fair Play scores are calculated can be found here.

The rules are basically encouraging the public to "verbally support their team in acceptable form" (I think Hymns and Arias has helped Swansea to no end this season!) and to also “covert recognition of outstanding play by the opponents”, which means applauding when, say, Heskey scores an overhead kick.

Teams can be deducted points for “persistent foul and abusive language”, “persistent abuse of the officials’ decisions” and “aggressive and threatening conduct towards opposing fans.”

So think carefully next time you decide to remind the referee he is a wanker (even though he may well seem it).

At the end of May, even if Swansea don't top the Fair Play table, they may be able to gain access to Europe depending on who is above them (if it's Man United, Spurs, etc, chances are they will already have a spot, so Swansea will automatically qualify).

There is another league controlling entry to the Europa League however, so this will all be obsolete if the English Premier League does not finish in the top three of the overall country league (it's getting confusing now). As it stands the EPL would not be given a fair play place as it sits eighth in the league.

Here is a little more reading on the subject, along with the current table – definitely something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

So how will Swansea fare in Europe? There are negatives such as squad size and a dent in finances to balance the prestige of playing with the likes of Napoli, Udinese, Bayer Leverkusen, Levante, and so on, but we'll cover that if Swansea do get there!

Remember to check me out on Twitter @ForzaSwansea for blog updates and general Swans discussion!

Swansea vs Wigan: Not must-win but must-not-lose

With the Wigan game on the way this Saturday it has just occurred to me that I've not heard any Swans fan - online or otherwise - mention “getting one over on Martinez”.

It's actually refreshing to concentrate on the game in the wider scheme of things instead of it being headlined as a match to show the former boss what he's been missing.

Chances are he already knows what he's missing!

Despite a more mature approach to this game by the fans - a sign of how far Swansea have come this season - the same question is there for a different reason: is this a must-win game?

I put this question out on Twitter last week and the response was mixed. Some say it is, some say it isn't. Some don't know. Perhaps the best response was: “It's not a must-win game, but it is a must-not-lose game”, a statement I very much agree with (thanks to @twm88 for that).

While a win is certainly desired (when is it not?) a draw would do fine. A loss on the other hand would make it three in a row and a meagre four points in seven games - not a good confidence boost before the Man City game next weekend. In fact, Swansea don't have the easiest set of games in the coming weeks with an away trip to Fulham, followed by Everton (home) and Spurs (away) soon after. You can see why it could be seen as a must-win game to some.

The good news for Swansea is Michel Vorm is likely to be back between the posts. Unfortunately Gerhard Tremmel - despite the polite words from the team - played a big part in the Stoke loss. He didn't ooze confidence during that 90 minutes. I'm aware he was called in at short notice, but a second keeper is probably the most likely reserve to be needed at short notice. It's a little bit 'Catch-22' - he needs more game time for confidence, but the game time he gets is not boosting his confidence (for the record, I haven't read 'Catch-22' so I may or may not know what I am talking about).

A regrettable loss is Kemy Agustien - out again following ankle surgery, which is something likely to keep him sidelined for a few weeks. Elsewhere Joe Allen and Ashley Williams should both feature after playing in the Wales international on Wednesday. The Swans set-up should be similar to that against Stoke, though I'd still like to see Routledge start and Sinclair come on later.

Saturday's game will be refereed by Andre Marriner. I found this article on a Wigan fan site outlining why he is likely to be booed by the Latics fans. Makes interesting side-reading.

As for bets this week I am holding off on any correct score prediction as my last few have been well off the mark and I don't want anyone to follow my lame guesses and waste money (like I do). However, Swansea to win the match is 2/1 (PaddyPower) and I think that is one bet my money will be on this Saturday afternoon.

So, while it's not officially a must-win game, let's hope for it. Otherwise things start getting a little uncomfortable. Also - it'll be nice to get one up on Martinez!

Remember to check me out on Twitter @ForzaSwansea for blog updates and general Swans discussion!

Swansea vs Stoke: something to do with pottery?

As you may be able to tell I was unable to come up with an original title with a good play on words for the Swansea vs Stoke (aka Potters) game. You could say... coming up with a title has... driven me potty! Boom.

So, shit introductions aside and Swansea City are back playing this weekend following what has essentially been two weeks off. They're playing away, they're playing Stoke and they're playing for the win.

Whereas Swansea's last international flight was a week ago, returning from a relaxing break in Tenerife, Stoke's last flight was probably this morning after retuning from their 1-0 Europa-League-exiting defeat to Valencia last night. Swansea, despite having to travel to the Britannia Stadium, should have a more relaxed air about them.

They'll need it after their last match. The game against Norwich was the first in a long time that Swansea visibly lacked composure. Yes, it's been put to bed now, but Stoke will surely have taken note of it and will know that to win, all they must do is ruffle Swansea's usual cool, calm game.

Stoke, as everyone is quick to point out, are very heavy handed. They have the height and physical advantage and have as much to play for as the Swans (both teams on 30 points at the moment). The Swans, as many more will be equally quick to point out, can out-pass Stoke all day long. In fact they've done so already this season, winning 2-0 in the Liberty against them in October.

A win on Sunday would probably see Swansea hold onto 11th place in the table – not a bad position. If things don't go as planned and they lose, Swansea could well fall to 15th. While that wouldn't necessarily be a dire situation, it's certainly the wrong end of the table to be finishing the weekend in, especially ahead of the upcoming game against Man City.

We can be thankful that there are no testing injury worries for Brendan Rodgers, so he has much to chose from. On Sunday I'd go with:

Vorm,
Rangel, Caulker, Williams, Taylor
Dyer, Britton, Allen, Agustien, Routledge
Graham

Kemy Agustien and Joe Allen were both missed in the Norwich game, but need to be included this time: Allen for his ball winning and Agustien just for his size and physical nature. However, there is news that Agustien has picked up a knock in training – if that's the case and he's sitting this one out, Sigurdsson is certainly the man to bring in. On the wing, I'd start Routledge for a change as Sinclair seems slightly off form (though he'd be a great sub to bring on to add speed when legs get tired). The rest goes without saying.

Onto predictions: I see a Swansea away win. 1-0. I think that ends this blog post.

Five things to do when the Swans aren't playing

Ah... another one of those weekends coming up.

That's right, Swansea don't play again until next Sunday, leaving us with over two weeks of clock watching. We are currently one week in to our two week void, and Saturday will really drag unless you have something to fill the hole.

So here are a few suggestions of things you can do to avoid boredom this Saturday:

1. Do the essential things you've put off because of the Swans
This is boring but it makes sense. While there is no score to check or stadium to be at, do all the things you've been meaning to do - household chores, spending time with family or washing the cat. Why not wander into Swansea City centre and remind yourself just how irritating it is on a Saturday? While there, stroll past Nandos and look for any Swans players inside eating over-priced chicken.

2. Watch football
While the Premier league is taking a little break, there is no reason you should deny yourself football watching or listening – many other games are being played this Saturday:

Why not give some much needed support to a local Welsh Premier League club by popping down to the Gnoll (Neath v Prestatyn 14:30) or Stebonheath Park (Llanelli v TNS 15:00). If it's something bigger you're after, the FA Cup sees Chelsea v Birmingham (12:30) and the all Premier League clash of Sunderland v Arsenal (17:15). Why not check out our neighbours (a nice reminder of our Championship years...), with Ipswich v Cardiff at 15:00? Plenty of football to be getting on with!

3. Have a few games on the PS3/Xbox/Wii
This could be smashing people on MW3 (or, like I do, hide and hope no-one finds me), soaking up the scenery in Uncharted 3 or, most apt, a few hours on FIFA 12! Whether you're amazing or shit (basically whether you choose Barcelona or Barnet) it kills a few hours and gives you that Saturday feeling (minus the singing and the over-priced pints). Start a new FIFA campaign as the Swans – it may not be as satisfying this season because there is no Premier League promotion to battle for, but try getting into Europe! I believe in you.

4. Play some football
Scrape the mud off your T90's, down a Lucozade and take to a field of your own! Try getting some friends together for a 5-a-side match in one of Swansea's many (well... two) five-a-side centres, or take a ball down the park and run like Dyer, score like Graham and fall over like Tate.

5. Go to the Liberty Stadium
If all else fails and you just can't keep away, wander through Hafod, buy a KFC and sit on a curb outside the stadium and quietly meditate. For that extra special feeling, buy the DVD of Swansea vs. Arsenal from the club shop and watch on a portable DVD player.

Thanks to @chippie77, @1matthewburgess and @kennyb0y for their suggestions on Twitter – feel free to leave any more in the comments section below or tweet me: @ForzaSwansea!

Roll on next week!

Swansea 2 – 3 Norwich: a game best forgotten

It's not often a team will out-Swansea Swansea. I expect it to happen when Swansea eventually make it to the Champions League and play Barcelona, but I didn't expect it yesterday against Norwich.

I had heard a few Swans fans were a little pessimistic before the match, but I honestly couldn't see it going any other way than three points to the home side. Yet Norwich came out and really did a number on the Swans and deserved their win. They had us sussed from start to finish.

So who didn't turn up? Literally Joe Allen, but he was injured so it's forgiveable. I can't say I was overly impressed with his replacement – Josh McEachran was a little too weak in an area that needs strength. Leon Britton needed someone more physical next to him and unfortunately McEachran didn't offer it. It's a shame Kemy Agustien was also injured as it might have been a different game with a stronger ball winner in the middle.

Angel Rangel was uncharacteristically disappointing. Too many times we saw a Norwich goal-scoring opportunity come from an attacker in too much space on that left wing. The rest of the back four all had a poor game in my eyes, although Steven Caulker showed some attacking talent with a few decent headed attempts at the other end.

Neil Taylor scoring a second consecutive home own goal was just bad luck, but own goals are only scored when there is pressure on the defence – and there was plenty of pressure on the defence yesterday! Elsewhere, Nathan Dyer and Scott Sinclair weren't allowed their usual space which resulted in both being rightly subbed.

On a positive note, Leon Britton, Gylfi Sigurdsson and Michel Vorm had decent games, but the performance by the whole team was very under-par.

The Liberty is a hard place for visitors to score (we actually have to go back to 2009 – Paulo Sousa reign – for the last time three away goals were scored there), but Swansea lacked the composure, style and accurate passing we have been spoilt with so regularly this season.

The worrying thing is that there doesn't seem to be a plan B for these situations. It's good for football that Swansea won't just hoof it long up the field, even when under pressure, but what can they do when their Barcelona-esque passing isn't an option?

The bench offered little in the way of impact subs – Mark Gower is fine to float a few balls into the area, and is a nice player to air-out when ahead, but he's no game changer. The introduction of Leroy Lita and Wayne Routledge seemed more out of desperation than a well thought out plan.

Let's get this right – Swansea will secure safety this season. I'm confident. At risk of jinxing it, there are too many other teams that are destined for the Championship and I can't see Swansea being one of them. But to continue and grow in the Premier League, Swansea need more of an idea of what to do if they aren't allowed to play their usual game.

It would be nice to see this experimented after safety is secured. It would be interesting to try a new formation or a new system. This experimentation could end up ruining a game for the Swans, but it would be worth it for a clearer idea of what is needed when teams come looking for trouble.

Swansea 1 – 1 Chelsea: an honest look at the game.

As I'm sure many will have said as they poured from the stadium last night: had Chelsea scored first and Swansea equalised (a la Spurs) it would be a scoreline worth celebrating. However, last night's point is acceptable to be annoyed at. As I see it, it is two points dropped.

As many others will have said: to be disappointed with a draw against Chelsea really shows Swansea have come a long way. Yes it does, but that fact doesn't make the disappointment any easier.

Looking at the match, and the evening in general, it was quite entertaining. The first half saw the typical Swansea set-up and the slick pass-and-move philosophy. Swansea could well have taken the lead at the 15-minute mark when three beautiful open-goal opportunities presented themselves, but it was not to be.

The pressure did pay off when Scott Sinclair took a blind swing at a bouncing ball and it dipped and floated past Petr Cech. A deserved 1-0 to the Swans.

Second half was a different game. Swansea's passing was way off the mark, with one too many loose passes and aimless runs. I had a feeling it wouldn't end 1-0 and I was right. It's just so cruel that the equaliser came in the 93rd minute from an own goal! The own goal won't be remembered though – Taylor had a good night and didn't deserve it. But Chelsea's goal looked imminent during the last 20 minutes.

I think a turning point was bringing on Luke Moore for Scott Sinclair. Apart from the goal, Sinclair didn't have an outstanding night, so a sub was a decent call. Bringing on Moore wasn't. He just doesn't do the running of Sinclair and never seems that interested in defending. I'd have brought on Routledge or even Richards if they wanted to close the game up. Ultimately Moore let Bosingwa through and there came the goal.

Moore and his lackadaisical approach aside and it was a decent team performance: Dyer didn't seem as composed as usual, but frustrated the hell out of the Chelsea midfield towards the end. Ashley Williams put in a good man-of-the-match performance, while Caulker mopped up a lot of loose ball at the back. Leon Britton was busy as usual and Kemy Agustien seemed to have a positive impact when coming on.

The referee was terrible in the second half generally, though he did issue the yellow cards and eventually send off Ashley Cole, so he got something right.

We can't blame the referee though. Swansea let Chelsea keep possession and territory in the second half and that led to the goal. The now famous “Swansea Triangle” was rarely seen in the latter stages. The skill is always there, but the composure and concentration is the thing that tends to transform three points into the single one with Swansea.

Still, it's a point...

Onto West Brom on Saturday, where there's now just a little more pressure to get the away win.